虽然一直以反愤青自居，不只一次怀疑过自己也愤青。个人强烈支持国家干预经济，特别是限制不作生产的暴利行业。次级贷款的事情大家都看到了，华尔街的“精英”们居然能把本来就靠不住的不良债权包装成债券转手倒卖，比如让养老金管理机构认购。如此空买空卖，账面上大家都发财，即使大部分圈内人都明白手里拿的只是一起吹起来的价值1000亿美元的欠条大气球。不过美国精英不怕气球破，有美联储在，有美国政府在，有美国大兵在。所谓金融产品就是跨国吸血管，到头来又是发展中国家的老百姓做冤大头。看第X代领导核心对内如何应对房市问题，对外如何抵抗逐步展开中的中美贸易战（这些比民主之类的紧迫多了）。败了的话一定比日本失去的十年更惨。抗日战争胜利62周年。亚洲金融危机10周年。美日经济战算有20年了吧。转篇文章IT'S TIME FOR CENTRAL BANKS TO STOP BAILING OUT MARKETSAndy XieThursday, August 16, 2007 The global credit bubble is bursting. This bubble is primarily leverage financing for owning risky assets. The people who were responsible for what happened played with other people's money, marketed arcane financial products with false promises of fat profits, but stuffed their own pockets with big bonuses. Neither these masters of the universe nor their greedy but na?ve investors deserve to be bailed out. They deserve what is coming to them.The central banks bear equal responsibility in the current debacle. After 9/11, central banks cut interest rates dramatically and provided the cheap money for this leverage bubble. They must not flood the world with liquidity again to sustain this bubble or create another. The central banks should focus on price stability, not financial market stability, and should provide liquidity only to contain the multiplier effect of the bubble bursting on the economy.Nor should central banks stimulate to avoid recession at any cost. Business cycles are not bad. Excesses must be followed with cleansing. The current upturn has lasted extra long due to the stimulative effect of the leverage bubble. After four years of 5 per cent global growth rate, a mild recession is a small price to pay. If, in response to the current crisis, central banks stimulate to pump up growth again, the excesses in the global economy will worsen and make the inevitable correction more painful. In the past five years, Wall Street has changed dramatically and that may not be for the better. The collapsing agency business has pushed banks into betting their own money for profit and selling “high margin” structured products to their clients. Their eagerness for selling new and poorly understood products, such as sub-prime mortgage derivatives, is a major factor in the current bubble. Like after the junk bond bubble of the 1980s, lawsuits may hit Wall Street for years to come.Rating agencies should share the guilt. They give high ratings to sub-prime derivatives with high seniority in payment. Unfortunately, the repayment behaviour of the sub-prime borrowers depends on macro conditions. As soon as property prices drop significantly, they tend to default at the same time and the seniority in repayment is not worth much. Like in the previous debt bubbles, rating agencies behave like momentum traders. The ratings are supposed to give guidance to investment risk during bad times, not to be downgraded when the situation turns sour.The ballooning hedge fund industry is also culpable. As their funds have become big, they have focused on their 2 per cent management fees rather than the share in investment profit. So they have focused on gathering assets by over-promising. Some funds specialise in illiquid assets such as derivative products of sub-prime mortgages. As long as they do not face redemption, they can report whatever performance they want. As soon as redemptions happen, they cannot even sell their stuff and have to refuse withdrawals.If central banks try to bail out Wall Street, it would lead to high inflation for years. The inflationary effect of loose monetary policy of the past was offset by the deflationary effect of globalisation. Now China and other developing countries are experiencing high and rising inflation. Loose money will go straight into inflation. The vicious cycle of the wage-price spiral of the 1970s has not occurred as both labour and capital still believe in the inflation- fighting credibility of the central banks. If they loosen up again to bail out Wall Street, this credibility may be squandered. The ensuing wage-price spiral could ruin the global economy for years to come.What is occurring is an opportunity for central banks to restore their credibility. Markets have been taking more risk than they should because they believe that central banks will come to their aid during times of crisis, like now. The penchant of Alan Greenspan, former US Federal Reserve chairman, to flood the market with liquidity during financial instability is the genesis of this “central bank put”. As long as this expectation remains, financial bubbles will occur again and again. Now is the time to act. Let the crooks go bankrupt. Central banks should bury the Greenspan “put” for good.Andy Xie is an independent economist in Shanghai中文翻译为什么不该拯救华尔街? 作者：谢国忠(Andy Xie)为英国《金融时报》撰稿2007年8月16日 星期四全球信贷泡沫正在破裂。这个泡沫主要体现在为了拥有高风险资产而进行的杠杆融资上。对这一切负有责任的那些人，玩的是别人的钱，以利润丰厚的虚假承诺推销神秘的金融产品，而自己的兜里却塞满了巨额奖金。他们罪有应得。需要施以援手的，不是这些“万物的灵长”，也不是他们的贪婪，而是无辜的投资者。各国央行对目前的崩溃局面负有同等的责任。 “911”之后，各国央行大幅降低利率，为这种杠杆泡沫提供了廉价的资金。它们千万不能再向世界大量提供流动性，以维持这个泡沫或再创造出一个泡沫了。各国央行应该专注于价格稳定，而不是金融市场的稳定，而且，提供流动性的目的应该仅限于为了遏制泡沫破裂对经济造成的乘数效应(multiplier effect)。各国央行也不应匆匆忙忙不惜任何代价避免经济衰退。商业周期不是坏事。过剩出现之后，一定会继之以清理过剩的过程。由于杠杆泡沫的促进效应，目前的上升周期已经持续了过长时间。在全球经济以5%的速度增长四年之后，适度衰退是人们需要付出的小代价。如果各国央行为了应对目前的危机而匆匆忙忙再次推高经济增速，那么，全球经济的过剩就会恶化，令不可避免的回调将更加痛苦。 过去五年中，华尔街发生了极大的变化，也许并没有变得更好。正在崩垮的代理业务促使银行用自己的资金博取利润，向自己的客户出售“高利润率”的结构性产品。他们热衷于销售新的、人们不甚了解的产品，如次级抵押贷款衍生品，这是造成目前泡沫的一个主要因素。就像上世纪80年代垃圾债券泡沫之后的情形一样，未来几年，华尔街将遭遇一系列诉讼。评级机构也难脱罪责。他们给那些具有较高“偿还资历”的次级衍生品以较高的评级。不幸的是，次贷借款人的偿还行为要取决于宏观形势。一旦房地产价格骤降，他们往往也会随之违约，偿还资历也不值什么钱了。正如在以前的债券泡沫中一样，评级机构的行为就像短线投机者(momentum trader)。评级本该在年景不好时给投资银行提供指导，而不该在形势变差时遭人唾弃。日益膨胀的对冲基金业也该受到指责。随着他们基金的壮大，他们对2%管理费的关注超过了对投资收益份额的关注。于是，他们靠着过度许诺一心收集资产。一些基金专门运作流动性资产，如次级抵押贷款的衍生品。只要他们不面临赎回，就可以随心所欲地报告业绩。一旦赎回发生，他们甚至都无法出售自己的产品，只能拒绝投资者的撤资要求。如果各国央行试图拯救华尔街，就将导致数年之久的高通胀。过去宽松货币政策的通胀效应被全球化的通缩效应抵消了。如今，中国和其它发展中国家正在经历不断加剧的高通胀。宽松的资金将直接推高通胀。上世纪70年代工资-物价螺旋式上升的恶性循环一直没有出现，是因为劳动力和资本仍然信任各国央行抗击通胀的声誉。如果它们再次放松政策以解救华尔街，这种信任就被辜负了。随之产生的工资-物价螺旋式上升将在未来数年毁掉全球经济。对各国央行来说，此时此刻发生的一切是一个重建声誉的机遇。市场承担的风险超出了它们本该承担的水平，因为它们相信，各国央行会在危机出现时向它们伸出援手。美联储 (Fed)前任主席艾伦